[ CYPHER CODE #966 ]
High prices no longer signal high quality. They signal scarcity.

[ CYPHER CODE #967 ]
Speed has replaced craftsmanship in modern homebuilding.

[ CYPHER CODE #968]
When demand is guaranteed, quality becomes optional.

BRIEFING

Grant here. It wasn't that long ago that dropping close to a million dollars on a brand new home bought you quality. But now, with the housing market being what it is, even a hefty chunk of change buys you a home made with a lick and a prayer. Let’s break it down.

A video online shows the walkthrough of an $830,000 new construction home, and while most of us looking at that price tag would expect perfection, the reality is anything but. There are loose fixtures, leaking plumbing, damaged flooring, missing components, and unfinished work everywhere. It literally looks like a home built by a crew that went through at least five cases of Bud Light per day.

SOURCE

This walkthrough is shocking because it shows the unspoken decline of our housing market. What surprises people isn’t just one or even a few defects, but it’s this type of scale of defects, especially at a house of this price. When you just look at a home that costs over $800k on Zillow, everything looks to be in tip-top shape, but upon closer inspection, you literally can see brickwork already separating, window seals failing, water pressure off, and hot water missing. And these aren’t small cosmetic nitpicks. They’re household essentials that are failing before the keys are even warm in a buyer’s hand.

But what's even more disturbing is that this isn't the only video out there showing just how far downhill new home constructions have gone. Just a brief visit to TikTok reveals a whole bevy of homes that were just built, but they're literally already falling apart.

@inspector_randle

Yes this is all the same house 😳 #newconstruction #homeinspection #inspectorhandle #newhome #homeinspector

♬ original sound - Inspector Randle

@clearvue_home_inspector

$1.3 million worth of quality right here! You be tge judge! #homeinspection #predrywallinspection #inspectortiktoks #viral #clearVUE #inspectorhacks #newconstruction #newbuild

♬ original sound - ClearVUE Home Inspection
@inspector.jordan

This new build was ‘ready.’ Project manager had everything opened up
 Five minutes later, the inspection was already paying for itself. #NewBuild #HomeInspectionMatters #RealEstateTips #InspectorTok #CheckupPropertyInspectionsAlabama

♬ original sound - Inspector Jordan

Now after watching all of these videos, I'm sure the number one question popping up is why are so many homes suffering lower quality construction? Well, there are a whole bevy of reasons; some are personal theories, and some are actually documented.

Overall, the reasons can be summed up simply as a collision of three forces:

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  1. Sky-high housing prices
  2. Rushed, volume-driven construction
  3. Collapsing craftsmanship standards

When housing demand is high and inventory is constrained, quality then becomes optional. And unfortunately buyers don’t have leverage, and builders are well aware.

It's also worth mentioning that labor productivity in U.S. construction also hasn’t improved in decades and has actually fallen since the 1970s, even as the economy naturally rose. The stagnation in home construction, due to inefficient skills and process shortcomings, also explains why quality hasn't kept pace with rising prices.

SOURCE

Labor productivity in U.S. construction in 2023 was essentially the same as it was in 1948. More importantly, as displayed in Figure 1, labor productivity in U.S. construction has actually been falling since the 1970s.

This phenomenon of falling productivity in U.S. construction was emphasized by the 2023 working paper "The Strange and Awful Path of Productivity in the U.S. Construction Sector."1 Real output per worker in 2020 was more than 30 percent lower than in 1970, following one of the most persistent productivity declines in any major industry.

This presents a puzzling contradiction: While other goods-producing sectors (such as mining and manufacturing) have achieved remarkable productivity gains over the past few decades, the construction sector — which is responsible for building the homes, offices and infrastructure needed for our growing economy — has experienced a prolonged and quite severe productivity decline.

DEBRIEFING

New homes aren’t failing simply because builders forgot how to build. They’re lacking because the incentives changed.

When demand is high, inventory is scarce, and buyers are stretched thin financially, quality is no longer the chief factor. Instead, speed becomes the main priority. And as we all know, speed also leads to cutting corners.

Modern homebuilding is optimized for efficiency, where crews are encouraged to move fast and "get the job done." As opposed to back in the day when laying bathroom tiles took days of precision. Now everything is just slapped together, and everyone, including the buyer, accepts it.

That’s how you end up with homes that look finished but are about as solid as an old shack. You've got loose fixtures, incomplete sealing, plumbing issues... I mean, that old shack actually might be a better, more well-built option at this point.

Then you just add insult to injury when you see the price tags on these homes. The average cost of a new construction home is around $500k, and when you consider that that's just the entry-level price before any upgrades, you have to stop and wonder why on earth people are paying top dollar for a subpar product.

Look, this isn't about blaming individual builders or inspectors. After all, the problem is much larger than that. But this is about recognizing that new construction now rewards completion over durability and cranking out volume. Until incentives realign, buyers will keep paying premium prices for homes that look decent from afar but are falling apart down to the studs.

NOW YOU KNOW

“New construction” now means rushed, not reliable.